Exit Polls in NA 120 Bye-Elections Show Slender Lead by PMLN
NA-120 (Lahore III)
Sunday (September 17, 2017)
The exit poll exercise conducted by Coalition for Elections and Democracy in national Assembly constituency NA 120 shows a slender lead for PMLN candidate Ms. Kulsum Nawaz. The survey was conducted on a sample size of 1433 voters including 796 males and 633 females and 4 transgender. The responses were collected from 55 sampled polling stations in national assembly constituency of NA120. Total number of polling stations in the constituency were 220.
The survey results show that PMLN bagged 46% of the votes against the 40% by closest rival of PTI candidate. PPP and JI could capture only 1.9% and 2.6% votes respectively.
The further analysis also shows some very interesting trends. The gender analysis of the exit pool result shows that 47% of the male cast their votes in favour of PMLN and 37% males voted for PTI. The share of PPP and JI amongst male voter remained 2.4% and 2.3% respectively. As for female voters, 44.2% voted for PMLN and 43.7% for PTI. Both PPP and JI could attract only 1.2% and 3% respectively.
The voting activity also has clear connection with educational qualification of the voters. Among the 242 illiterate voters, PMLN has a clear lead with 61% votes. PTI could bagged only 20% of the illiterate voters. The share of PPP and JI among illiterate voters was 3% each. A similar trend continues with voters with educational qualification of primary and matric. PTI starts gaining lead amongst the candidates with higher educational qualification. PTI share amongst graduate voters 57% which increases to 76% for voters holding master degree. PTI share for voters having M.Phil/Ph.D degree is 77%.
The voter choice also indicates a connection with the age group. PTI is the choice of younger age group with the support of 50 % voters in age group 18-22 years and 48% voters with 23-35 age group. Of both of these two age groups, PMLN share was 40%. This difference is not as sharp as was usually considered in absence of such data. PMLN has a clear lead among age groups from 35-50, 50-65 and above 65 years.
Talking about the profession, PMLN enjoys majority within daily wager, low paid industry workers and small businessmen whereas PTI has clear lead among students and professional degree holders.
The exit poll results are prepared with utmost care; however, it can have a margin of error up to 20%.
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